David Dee Delgado/Getty Images
- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has few options left in his battle for political survival.
- Eleven women's accounts of sexual harassment were corroborated in the New York AG's report.
- Cuomo has other scandals to deal with, making a 2022 reelection bid steeper than ever before.
- See more stories on Insider's business page.
Since March, when he began to increase the number of his public appearances, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has increasingly evoked the legacy of his late father, former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo.
Until last week's bombshell report from New York Attorney General Letitia James, it seemed reasonable to assume both father and son would have three terms in Albany's corner office under their belts by the end of 2022.
But with the 165 page James report corroborating the accounts of 11 women accusing him of various forms of sexual misconduct leading to calls for his resignation from the Empire State's entire congressional delegation, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and President Joe Biden, Cuomo's days in the governor's mansion may be numbered.
How exactly it plays out depends heavily on the Assembly's impeachment investigation, which is set to heat up after this Friday's deadline for the governor's office to submit evidence in Cuomo's defense.
Here are four plausible scenarios on how this scandal-ridden saga ends for Andrew Cuomo, all but one of which involve him forgoing the fourth term bid that eluded his father.
Impeachment
Through the spring, impeachment seemed like the least likely possibility.
Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, a Bronx Democrat, proceeded slowly with the impeachment investigation launched back in March and cautioned that the AG investigation may not hasten any of it.
Heastie changed his tune once the report was released and called for Cuomo's resignation, injecting a newfound urgency into the impeachment investigation and making removal from office not only a genuine possibility, but one of the most likely outcomes.
New York's impeachment process is similar to that of the US Congress, with a simple majority in the Assembly and a two-thirds one in the Senate required to remove Cuomo.
A Monday press conference from Heastie and Assemblyman Charles Levine, a Long Island Democrat in charge of the probe, made clear that once the Friday deadline passes, lawmakers will move forward with the nuts and bolts of impeachment proceedings.
However, state law requires the Senate to wait 30 days after articles of impeachment are filed before they can begin the trial, giving Cuomo until October at the earliest to prepare for that showdown.
Resignation
Cuomo has refused to resign on several occasions, even going so far as to accuse New York lawmakers of "bowing to cancel culture."
With no allies left to defend him beyond his own attorney, Cuomo is more isolated than ever before.
Resignation would bring about the swiftest end to the saga, and it would arguably allow Cuomo to retain some degree of dignity and preserve whatever political future he has left.
The most tempting window for Cuomo to resign may fall between the Assembly vote and the Senate trial, which was the same point at which former US President Richard Nixon chose to resign amid the Watergate scandal.
As Laura Nahmias recently wrote for New York's Intelligencer, "Heastie badly wants the Assembly's Judiciary Committee to create an airtight, legally bulletproof, and dispassionate case against Cuomo, so the famously slippery governor can't somehow escape on a technicality, or distract from the shocking sexual harassment charges against him by nitpicking holes in the legal proceedings."
This could explain why Cuomo would wait until impeachment proceedings get under way before deciding to resign, but given the pattern he's demonstrated over the past five months, no one should hold their breath.
The three term off ramp
Cuomo has reportedly been working on brokering a deal with the Assembly to get out of the impeachment predicament.
In exchange for his promise not to run again in 2022, the Assembly would hold off from impeaching him, according to The City.
Heastie denied the notion at his Monday press conference, telling reporters, "I am not negotiating any deals."
-Josefa Velásquez (@J__Velasquez) August 9, 2021
From Cuomo's perspective, this would be the best compromise he could reach, and he would at least tie his father when it comes to the length of their tenures as governor.
For Cuomo's accusers, such a deal would let the governor get off far too easy.
Attorney Debra Katz, who represents former staffer Charlotte Bennett, has remained adamant that justice for her client involves the legislature holding Cuomo accountable.
-Morgan Mckay (@morganfmckay) August 6, 2021
"Further delay is an affront to the women who came forward and to survivors everywhere," Katz wrote in a statement last week.
A run for a fourth term
This would be a continuation of what Cuomo has already been doing for months: keep holding events in front of friendly audiences, rally the base, and buy time.
Cuomo could try to rely on the public losing interest as the impeachment investigation drags on, hoping for polling to show a reversal from the new majority of New Yorkers who want him to leave office. That number is up to 70%, according to the latest Quinnipiac survey, with 55% of New Yorkers saying he should be charged with a crime.
Cuomo hasn't ruled out a fourth term, and he has around $20 million in campaign funds ready to go for reelection in 2022. Despite the scandals mounting through March and April, he still raised over $2 million since being accused of sexual harassment by multiple women.
While this option could leave his reputation more tarnished than under any of the other scenarios, Cuomo could choose to rely on his campaign war chest to fend off a primary challenger and count on traditionally poor statewide performances from Republicans to secure a fourth term.
The last Republican to take the governor's office from Democratic control was George Pataki in 1994. His opponent was Mario Cuomo.